The French Ligue 1 returns to the iconic Stade Louis II this Sunday, February 1st, for a high-stakes encounter between AS Monaco and Stade Rennais. As we move into Matchday 20 of the 2025/2026 season, both sides find themselves at a crossroads. Monaco is desperate to snap a worrying winless streak at home, while Rennes aims to solidify their grip on a European qualification spot.
In this comprehensive Monaco vs Rennes prediction, we analyze team form, key injuries, and the tactical nuances that will decide this battle on the Mediterranean coast.
Match Context: Crucial Points for European Ambitions
As of late January 2026, the Ligue 1 table paints two different pictures. Rennes currently sits in 6th place with 31 points, well within striking distance of the Champions League places. Conversely, Monaco has slipped to 10th place with 24 points after a difficult winter period.
Monaco’s Home Struggle
Sébastien Pocognoli’s side has found the Stade Louis II to be anything but a fortress lately. Monaco comes into this game having failed to win any of their last three home league matches, including a stinging 1-3 loss to Lorient. A recent 0-0 draw against Juventus in the Champions League showed defensive resilience, but their domestic form remains a major concern for the Monégasque faithful.
Rennes’ Quest for Consistency
Habib Beye’s Rennes side has been one of the most consistent away teams in the league, losing only once in their last nine trips. However, they are coming off a disappointing 0-2 loss to Lorient. They will be looking to complete a rare league double over Monaco after thumping them 4-1 earlier in the season.
Team News: Key Absences & Predicted Lineups
Injuries and suspensions are set to play a massive role in this fixture, particularly for the hosts.
AS Monaco Injury Report
Monaco is dealing with a significant injury crisis. The following players are unlikely to feature:
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Takumi Minamino: Sidelined with torn knee ligaments.
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Paul Pogba: Recovering from a calf injury.
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Mohammed Salisu: Suspended through the sports court.
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Lukas Hradecky & Wout Faes: Both are doubtful with recent knocks.
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Eric Dier: A late fitness test is required for the veteran defender.
Stade Rennais Injury Report
In contrast, Rennes enters this match with a relatively clean bill of health, allowing Habib Beye to field his strongest possible XI.
Predicted Starting XIs
AS Monaco (4-2-3-1): Kohn; Vanderson, Kehrer, Coulibaly, Ouattara; Zakaria, Lamine Camara; Akliouche, Golovin, Ansu Fati; Mika Biereth.
Stade Rennais (4-3-3): Brice Samba; Seidu, Jacquet, Brassier, Frankowski; Valentin Rongier, Mahdi Camara, Quentin Merlin; Ludovic Blas, Estéban Lepaul, Breel Embolo.
Tactical Analysis: Where the Game Will Be Won
Midfield Control vs. Wing Play
Monaco’s hopes rest on the shoulders of Aleksandr Golovin and Maghnes Akliouche. Their ability to find pockets of space between Rennes’ midfield and defense will be vital. However, Rennes’ midfield trio, led by the experienced Valentin Rongier, is adept at breaking up play and launching quick transitions.
The “Embolo Factor”
Former Monaco striker Breel Embolo will be a marked man. He scored in the 4-1 reverse fixture and his physical presence usually causes problems for Thilo Kehrer and the Monaco backline. If Monaco’s makeshift defense cannot contain Embolo’s hold-up play, Rennes will find plenty of opportunities for Ludovic Blas to exploit the flanks.
Head-to-Head (H2H) Statistics
History traditionally favors Monaco, but the tide has turned recently:
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Last Meeting: Rennes 4-1 Monaco (November 2025).
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All-Time Record: Monaco leads with 58 wins to Rennes’ 26.
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Recent Trend: Monaco has won 4 of the last 6 encounters, but Rennes’ recent 4-1 victory has shattered the psychological barrier.
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Goals: 16 of the last 18 H2H meetings have seen Both Teams to Score (BTTS).
Betting Odds & Predictions
The bookmakers have Monaco as slight favorites due to home advantage, but the value may lie elsewhere.
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Monaco to Win: 2.10
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Draw: 3.50
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Rennes to Win: 3.40
Recommended Betting Tips:
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Both Teams to Score (Yes): Given Monaco’s defensive injuries and the historical H2H trend, this is the safest play.
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Double Chance – Rennes or Draw: Monaco is winless in four league games and missing several key starters. Rennes’ away form makes them a strong candidate to take at least a point.
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Over 2.5 Goals: Both teams have offensive quality, and their recent defensive records suggest a high-scoring affair.
Final Score Prediction
Monaco is desperate for a result, but their extensive injury list makes it difficult to see them dominating a well-drilled Rennes side. While the Monégasque attack, led by the young Mika Biereth, should find the net, Rennes has the tactical discipline to exploit the gaps left by Monaco’s depleted defense.
Final Prediction: Monaco 1-1 Rennes
Conclusion
The Monaco vs Rennes clash on February 1st is set to be a tactical battle between two of France’s most ambitious clubs. For Monaco, it’s about survival in the top half of the table; for Rennes, it’s about proving they belong in the Champions League conversation. Football Predictions good luck!
